Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
